Perspectives
Short-term outlook (as at May 25, 2022)
Recurring EBITDA: outlook for 2022
CAPEX: outlook for 2022
2022 vs 2021 perspective |
The main factors |
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Conventional Generation |
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Low-emission sources |
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District heating |
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Renewables |
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Supply |
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Distribution |
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The following tables present aspects influencing the development of PGE Group’s operations in the medium term
MAIN DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE | POTENTIAL IMPACT ON PGE CAPITAL GROUP | |
Macroeconomic environment – global |
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Macroeconomic environment – Poland |
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Trends in electricity and fuel markets |
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*(based on the MANAGEMENT BOARD REPORT on the activities of PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna S.A. and PGE Group for 2021)
MAIN DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE | POTENTIAL IMPACT ON PGE CAPITAL GROUP | |
Development of new technologies |
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*(based on the MANAGEMENT BOARD REPORT on the activities of PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna S.A. and PGE Group for 2021)
Surroundings
Societal expectations define the vision for energy
The energy sector has undergone profound changes in recent years. Public expectations are now directed towards energy produced in an environmentally friendly way and solutions that are tailored to customers’ needs and give a sense of independence. The main trends defining the future of the sector are Decarbonisation, Decentralisation, Competition. Regulatory changes have emerged tightening the European Union’s environmental policy, aiming to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. With social and regulatory changes, the policy of banks and investors to finance projects in the energy sector has also changed. These days, money flows to investments in zero-carbon generation sources and grid infrastructure.
Energy transition as element of economic model
Fiscal and investment policy linked to environmental targets
- Targeting funds for investment in zero-carbon generating sources and grid infrastructure
- Reducing the availability of finance for fossil fuel-based power generation
- Companies and cities striving for sustainability
Changes in the surroundings are not only a threat and a challenge for the sector, but also an opportunity to provide an investment boost to the economy through the construction of new generation sources and the modernisation of energy infrastructure. The transition of the energy sector should translate into economic development, sustainable growth for companies and cities, as well as an equitable transition of regions hitherto associated with coal mining. Energy transition is becoming part of the economic model. PGE Group’s investments will focus on renewable energy, district heating transition and grid infrastructure. The total planned investment expenditures in 2021-2030 will amount to PLN 75 billion, of which approx. 50% will be allocated to the development of renewable energy sources (offshore and onshore wind farms, photovoltaics, zero-emission co-generation sources).
Economic development
Investment stimulus thanks to power grid modernisation
Just transition
Creating an opportunity for post-industrial regions to develop new specialisations
Independence
Use of renewable energy resources and energy storage assets
Challenges for energy companies
Adapting the organisation to competing in a new surrounding
Changes in the surroundings are not only a threat and a challenge for the sector, but also an opportunity to provide an investment boost to the economy through the construction of new generation sources and the modernisation of energy infrastructure. The transition of the energy sector should translate into economic development, sustainable growth for companies and cities, as well as an equitable transition of regions hitherto associated with coal mining. Energy transition is becoming part of the economic model. PGE Group’s investments will focus on renewable energy, district heating transition and grid infrastructure. The total planned investment expenditures in 2021-2030 will amount to PLN 75 billion, of which approx. 50% will be allocated to the development of renewable energy sources (offshore and onshore wind farms, photovoltaics, zero-emission co-generation sources).
This direction is inevitable. Poland's energy sector needs a leader of change.
PGE wants to play the role of a leader in the transition and modernisation of the energy sector in Poland and to support the building of a market environment conducive to energy transition. PGE Group is ready to carry out transition processes in the sector and prepare the conventional base of the power system to function under a new ownership structure. As a transition leader, PGE is committed to reducing its environmental impact by achieving climate neutrality in 2050. Sustainable decarbonisation is planned by changing generation technologies, expanding the RES portfolio and enabling customers to participate in the energy transition through attractive product offerings. The company will pioneer the development and operation of offshore wind energy.
Market environment
Electricity prices – domestic market
DAY-AHEAD MARKET (RDN, SPOT MARKET)
Market/measure | Unit | Q4 2021 | Q4 2020 | % change | 2021 | 2020 | % change |
RDN – average price | PLN/MWh | 617 | 246 | 151% | 398 | 209 | 90% |
RDN – trading volume | TWh | 7.73 | 7.62 | 1% | 31.06 | 28.73 | 8% |
Analysis – selected price factors affecting RDN quotations
Factor | Unit | Q4 2021 | Q4 2020 | % change | 2021 | 2020 | % change |
CO2 emission rights | EUR/t | 68.16 | 26.59 | 156% | 53.87 | 24.14 | 123% |
Polish Steam Coal Market Index PSCMI-1 | PLN/GJ | 11.35 | 11.82 | -4% | 11.42 | 11.91 | -4% |
Wind generation NPS | TWh | 4.97 | 4.09 | 22% | 14.23 | 14.17 | 0% |
Ratio: wind generation/ NPS consumption | % | 11% | 9% | 8% | 9% | ||
Ratio: international trading/ NPS consumption | % | – | 7% | 0% | 8% |
In the fourth quarter of 2021, the average electricity price on the day-ahead market was PLN 617/MWh and was higher by 151% than average price (PLN 246/MWh) in the preceding year. The increase in energy prices resulted mainly from lower net import in comparison to the fourth quarter of 2020 (-4.4 TWh). Higher demand for electricity (+ 1.2 TWh y/y) also contributed to the price increase.
In full year 2021, the average price on the day-ahead market was PLN 398/MWh, which is 90% higher than the average price recorded in the preceding year (PLN 209/MWh). The increase in price was connected with the situation on related markets – average price of CO2 emission rights in 2020 was by 123% higher than in the base year and amounted to EUR 53.87/t. The PSCMI1 index in 2021 averaged PLN 11.42/GJ – down by 4% y/y. On the other hand, price increase pressure was exerted by the net import volume lower by 94% y/y. The prices were also affected by a increase in demand by 8.9 TWh y/y.
Forward market
Market/measure | Unit | Q4 2021 | Q4 2020 | % change | 2021 | 2020 | % change |
BASE Y+1 – average price | PLN/MWh | 515 | 227 | 127% | 385 | 232 | 66% |
BASE Y+1 – trading volume | TWh | 28.35 | 29.09 | -3% | 104.44 | 126.75 | -18% |
PEAK5 Y+1 – average price | PLN/MWh | 567 | 261 | 117% | 428 | 272 | 57% |
PEAK5 Y+1 – trading volume | TWh | 3.48 | 4.00 | -13% | 12.38 | 14.07 | -12% |
Electricity prices on forward market are shaped by the similar fundamental factors, as the prices on the Day-Ahead Market described above. The observed forward market price increase y/y for the whole year for BASE_Y+1 is related to increased demand for electricity and very high prices of CO2.
1 Monthly average index level for forward contracts for the next year (Y+1), baseload and peak, weighted by the trading volume.
Electricity prices - international market
Wholesale market (comparison of day-ahead markets)
Chart: Comparison of average electricity prices on Polish market and on European markets in the fourth quarter of 2021 (prices in PLN/MWh, average exchange rate EUR/PLN 4.62).
Source: TGE, EEX, Nordpool
Chart: Comparison of average electricity prices on Polish market and on European markets in 2021 (prices in PLN/MWh, average exchange rate EUR/PLN 4.56).
Source: TGE, EEX, Nordpool
Source: TGE, EEX, Nordpool
In the fourth quarter of 2021, the y/y change in prices on neighbouring markets ranged between PLN 444 and PLN 651/MWh (i.e. approx. 302-370%), whereas in Poland the average price level has increased to a lesser extent, by PLN 371/MWh y/y (increase by approx. 151%). The low correlation of energy prices results from differences in the technological mix (share of renewable energy sources) and the situation on the markets for related products. The price of hard coal in ARA ports rose by 191% y/y, while the domestic pulverised coal price index, PSCMI-1, decreased by 4% over the same period.
Source: ARP, Bloomberg (API21MON OECM Index), own work.
1 The comparison is illustrative only. Methodologies of counting the ARA and PSCMI1 indexes are different. Among other things, the ARA index includes insurance and delivery costs. The PSCMI 1 is an ex-mine index without insurance and delivery costs. Standards for calculating the caloric values are also different (ARA – 25.12 GJ/t vs. PSCMI1 caloric value – range 20-24 GJ/t). The aim is to compare the trend and not the absolute level. For illustration purposes ARA index is recalculated from USD/t to PLN/GJ.
On an annual basis, average energy prices on neighbouring markets increased by PLN 254-306/MWh y/y (i.e. by approx. 221-226%), while the average price in Poland increased by PLN 189/MWh y/y (approx. 90%). The price differential between Poland and neighbouring countries was largely attributable to differences in coal and natural gas prices at home and abroad.
International trading
Monthly imports, exports and cross-border exchange balance in 2020-2021.
Source: own work based on PSE S.A. data.
Source: own work based on PSE S.A. data.
In the fourth quarter of 2021, Poland was a net exporter of electricity, and the commercial exchange balance was -1.4 TWh (3.9 TWh import, 5.2 TWh export) and was lower by 4.4 TWh on a y/y basis. Export to Czechia and Slovakia together with import from Germany, Sweden and Lithuania had the largest impact on the balance of commercial exchange.
In 2021, the balance of commercial exchange reached 0.8 TWh (import 15,1 TWh, export 14.3 TWh) and was 12.4 TWh lower on a y/y basis (i.e. by approx. 94% y/y). Export to Czechia and Slovakia together with import from Germany, Sweden, Lithuania and Ukraine had the largest impact on the balance of commercial exchange.
Source: own work based on PSE S.A. data.
Global increase in fuel prices (which translate into an increase in the costs of electricity production from natural gas and hard coal) and, additionally, lower windiness translated into an increase in energy prices in neighboring countries, which in turn limited electricity imports to Poland.
Retail market
The diversity of electricity prices for retail customers in the European Union depends both on the level of the wholesale prices of electricity and fiscal system, regulatory mechanism and support schemes in particular countries. In Poland in the first half of 2021 an additional burden (over sale price and cost of electricity distribution) for individual customers accounted for 41% of the electricity price and in comparison to EU average of 39%. In Denmark and Germany the proportion of additional charges in the price of electricity exceeded 50%.
Chart: Comparison of average prices for individual customers in selected EU countries in the first half of 2021 (prices in PLN/MWh, average exchange rate EUR/PLN 4.47).
Source: own work based on Eurostat data.
2 Parallel exchange – exchange between synchronised system on borders with Germany, Czechia and Slovakia
3 Eurostat data on retail market are published in semi-annual intervals.
Prices of certificates
In the fourth quarter of 2021 the average price of green certificates (index TGEozea) reached PLN 273/MWh and was higher by 94% compared to the analogical period of the previous year. An obligation to redeem green certificates has remained unchanged in 2021 as compared to 2020 (19.5%). The average price of green certificates in 2021 was at PLN 192/MWh and was higher by 39% compared to 2020. The closure of a certification system for new units and the upcoming end of a 15-year support period for first installations that had entered the system in 2005 and lower windiness in 2021 resulted in limited supply of cetificates on the market, what in consequence led to the prices increase.
Chart: Average quarterly prices of green certificates (TGEozea).
Source: Own work based on TGE quotations.
Prices of CO2 emission rights
EUA (European Union Allowances) prices are one of the key factors determining wholesale energy prices and PGE Group’s financial results. Installations emitting CO2 in the process of electricity or heat production bear the expenses for purchasing EUA allowances to cover the deficit (i.e. the difference between CO2 emissions at PGE Group’s generating units and the free-of-charge allowances received under derogation in accordance with the National Investment Plan). Wherein, last allocations granted free of charge were planned for realisation of investment tasks for 2019. It means that the free allocations for electricity generation, in accordance with the currently used method, ended when 2019 allowances were received.
Following a sudden slump caused by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in mid-March 2020, the prices of CO2 emission allowances began recovering until reaching dynamic growth from November 2020. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the weighted average price of EUA DEC 21 was EUR 68.16/t and was considerably higher (by 156%) than the average price of EUR 26.59/t for the EUR DEC 20 instrument in the similar period of the previous year. In whole year 2021, the weighted average price of EUA DEC 21 was EUR 53.87/t and was by 123% higher than the average price of EUR 24.14/t for the EUR DEC 20 instrument in the previous year.
Source: own work based on ICE exchange quotations
CO2 emission rights granted free of charge
The Group received emission allowance allocations for heat generation for 2020 on April 23, 2021, after verification of asset and financial reports for investments included in the National Investment Plan. Allocations for electricity producers are no longer awarded from 2020.
On July 7, 2021, the climate minister published a list of installations along with the final volume of CO2 emission allowances allocated for the production of heat for 2021-2025 in accordance with the Act of June 12, 2015 on the ETS scheme.
The publication of this list is the final step in the process of determining the allocation of emission allowances on the basis of reports concerning key data submitted by installation operators by June 30, 2019. The input data for the allocation concerned the period 2014-2018.
The publication of the list completes the process of determining the final volume of emission allowances allocated to installations in accordance with Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2019/331 of December 19, 2018 determining transitional Union-wide rules for harmonised free allocation of emission allowances pursuant to Article 10a of Directive 2003/87/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council.
The final volume of emission allowances published is subject to adjustment based on the average level of production in the two years preceding the year for which emission allowances are granted. Data on production levels is provided by March 31 of each year starting from 2021 in ALC reports. Based on this data, emission allowance allocations are either decreased or increased if the average production level in the past two years exceeds the ±15% threshold (if the threshold is exceeded, the threshold in the following years will be ±5 percentage points above 15%). The final volume of emission allowances granted to an installation is determined on this basis. The adjustment will be performed on an annual basis in accordance with rules specified in Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2019/1842 of October 31, 2019.
On October 12, 2021, emission allowances were issued to the installation’s accounts in the Union registry, in line with the announcement of the Minister of Climate and Environment in the Public Information Bulletin. This issue concerns the final annual number of emission allowances allocated for 2021, resulting from the application submitted in 2019 and approved by the European Commission in June 2021, assuming no changes, resulting from the ALC reports submitted by the end of March 2021. The current issue of emission allowances does not include the adjustment of the allocation of emission allowances in terms of the additional number of allocated emission allowances. In the case of installations where the allocation of emission allowances has been reduced, such issuance has been suspended due to a change in the level of activity. The adjusted final annual number of emission allowances for an installation determined as a result of the adjustment of the allocation of emission allowances will be issued immediately after its approval by the European Commission.
Emission of CO2 compared to the allocation of CO2 emission allowances for 2021 (in tonnes).
Product | CO2 emissions in 2021 | Allocation of CO2 emission rights for 2021* |
Electricity and heat | 70,746,382 | 638,274 |
Competitive environment
District heating sector may be also distinguished, within which PGE Group is active in heat generation, distribution and sales.
The key participants of the electricity market in Poland are four nationwide, vertically integrated energy concerns: PGE, TAURON Polska Energia S.A., ENEA S.A. and ENERGA S.A., which was acquired by PKN Orlen in 2020.
PGE Group is the undisputed leader in electricity generation with a market share of approx. 43%. The Group produces more electricity than all of the competitors on the consolidated market combined, whilst having the largest achievable capacities, both conventional and renewable. Aside from integrated energy groups, significant producers on the market include PKN Orlen S.A., ZE PAK S.A. („ZE PAK”), and PGNiG TERMIKA S.A. („PGNiG”). While ZE PAK’s production is based on industrial plants, Orlen’s and PGNiG’s production is based on cogeneration units generating electricity together with heat.
In 2021 54% of the electricity produced in the country was hard coal-based – and this is a key fuel for PGE Group’s competitors.
Approximately 26% of the electricity produced in Poland was lignite-based. Aside from PGE Group, ZE PAK also bases its electricity production on lignite. Wind farms as well as gas units have approx. 8% share in electricity generation. The use of other fuels is of relatively low significance from the viewpoint of the NPS.
Source: own work based on information published by the companies and Agencja Rynku Energii S.A. (”ARE”).
Energy production from renewable sources is much more dispersed than the conventional generation market. In the previous year wind photovoltaics was the most dynamically developing sector. As of the end of December 2021, this technology had the largest share in total installed RES capacities – 7.7 GW, although the vast majority of installations (5.9 GW) belonged to over 800 thousand prosumers. The development of photovoltaics is an element of PGE Group’s investment plan, which sees the construction of approx. 3 GW in capacity by 2030. So far, PGE Energia Odnawialna has secured approx. 3 thousand hectares of land for the purpose of building farms with a capacity of more than 2 GW. Moreover, in 2021 the company received approvals for the implementation of new projects with a total capacity of nearly 200 MW. PGE Group remains the entity with the highest installed wind capacity – 688 MW and has an approx. 10% share in total wind capacity installed in Poland. Other notable wind farm operators include EDP Renewables Polska sp. z o.o., TAURON Ekoenergia sp. z o.o. and PKN Orlen S.A.
Offshore wind farms are an emerging RES segment in Poland. In the system’s first phase, support is awarded by way of an administrative decision issued by the President of the Energy Regulatory Office, and from 2025 offshore wind farms projects will be able to participate in the auction system. In 2021, the President of the Energy Regulatory Office awarded support to two offshore projects with a total capacity of 2.5 GW, which are being implemented jointly by PGE and Ørsted (JO 50/50). The European Commission must still confirm compliance with the internal market of the public aid granted to a producer in order to receive support.
Growth in the market prices of energy allows for the development of RES investments also outside the support system, based on PPAs.
In the distribution area, the country is divided into regions, with four large distribution system operators (the “DSO”) on the market, who are required to carve out distribution activities from their other business: PGE Dystrybucja S.A., TAURON Dystrybucja S.A., Enea Operator sp. z o.o. and Energa-Operator S.A.
Aside from the above-mentioned energy groups, another significant entities include Stoen Operator sp. z o.o. (company from E.ON Group, previously innogy Stoen Operator sp. z o.o.), responsible for electricity distribution in Warsaw, as well as PKP Energetyka S.A. managing the railway electric network throughout the country.
A historical division of the distribution areas has substantial impact on the operating conditions of the business, and this specific situation is reflected in the distribution tariffs approved by the URE president. PGE Group operates in an area that is less urbanised and industrialised, meaning that it has more than 5.5 million clients throughout an area of approx. 130 ths km2. For comparison, TAURON has a similar number of clients in an area nearly twice smaller and distributes a larger amount of energy.
Chart: Areas of operation of Polish distribution system operators.
Source: own work.
Chart: Share of particular energy groups in volume of energy distributed in 2020 and sales of electricity to final off-takers after three quarters of 2021.
Source: own work based on information published by the companies, ARE and ERO.
In the retail segment, which covers sales to end customers – individual, small and medium enterprises as well as large industrial customers – most of the sales are conducted by the four largest energy groups and E.ON Polska S.A. (formerly innogy Polska S.A.). PGE Group and TAURON remain the leaders, having over 50% of the market. Both PGE and TAURON sell electricity to over five million clients. Despite a growing number of competitors in the segment, including companies for which electricity is not a core product, companies from outside the four largest Polish groups continue to control little market share. The leaders control over 80% of the market, while other significant player is E.ON Polska S.A., based on sales connected with serving as distributor for the Warsaw area, as well as PKP Energetyka S.A.
The district heat production market in Poland is highly dispersed, with the four leading producers accounting for less than 40% of production countrywide. PGE Group is the undisputed leader of this market, too with a share at a level of over 20%. This market is of a local nature and bears the traits of a natural monopoly, with heating prices being set in an administrative procedure – tariffs approved by the President of the Energy Regulatory Office. The dominant producers focus their production activities in different urban areas therefore sector competition is limited and is local in nature. Besides PGE Group, the key producers of heat are PGNiG (focused on production mainly in the Warsaw agglomeration) and Veolia Group (Poznań agglomeration, Łódź).
Energy group profiles
The division of the electricity sector into segments is reflected in the segments. The electricity sector is divided into segments, what is reflected in the operating segments of the respective energy groups. In contrast to the other energy groups in Poland, whose dominant EBITDA driver is the electricity distribution segment, PGE Group derives much of its operating profit from the generation segment, even though the group is the country’s second-largest electricity distributor by volume. This allows to optimally deploy its competences and capitalise on opportunities arising in the generation area (both conventional and renewable) as well as in wholesale energy trade, whilst generating high and stable EBITDA on regulated activities.
With acquisitions of the Bogdanka mine and Połaniec power plant and the launch of a new unit at the Kozienice power plant, ENEA increased its share of EBITDA from the generation segment. This brought ENEA’s profile closer to that of PGE Group.
A key feature of all the groups is a relatively small contribution of retail sales to operating profit, which is a result of sales margin levels, driven by strong competition in the segment.
Chart: Profiles of Polish energy groups (size of the chart is proportionate to share in the 9M 2021 EBITDA of respective business segments and the amount of total EBITDA).
Regulatory environment
PGE Group operates in an environment with a significant impact of domestic and foreign regulations. Presented below is a summary of the most significant decisions, which took place in 2021 and which could have an impact on PGE Group’s operations in the coming years.
*(based on the MANAGEMENT BOARD REPORT on the activities of PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna S.A. and PGE Group for 2021)
Segments | Regulation | Regulation objectives | Latest conclusions | Next stage | Impact on PGE Group |
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European Green Deal/ Fit for 55 package | |||||
Directive 2003/87/EC establishing a scheme for greenhouse gas emission allowance trading within the EU (ETS Directive) as well as implementing and delegated acts,
Decision (EU) 2015/1814 concerning the establishment and operation of a market stability reserve for the Union greenhouse gas emission trading scheme (MSR Decision). |
Combating climate change.
Development of investment incentives through a CO2 price signal to develop low-emission sources. |
On July 14, 2021 the European Commission presented a draft reform of ETS and MSR decision (relevant legislative proposals). ENVI is the leading committee on the draft reform of the ETS directive at the European Parliament, and Peter Liese (EPS, DE) is the rapporteur. ENVI is the leading committee on the MSR decision, and Cyrus Engerer (S&D, MT) is the rapporteur. The European Parliament wants to vote on its position on both of the legislative acts in the second quarter of 2022, so as to begin negotiations with the Council and the European Commission on the final shape of the inter-institutional agreement in the second half of the year.
Reaching a general agreement in the Council on the revision of the ETS Directive and the Market Stability Reserve decision is a priority for the current French Presidency. |
The legislative proposal is being proceeded in accordance with the regular procedure by the European Parliament and Council.
The EC expects that negotiations at EU institutions may last until 2023, so that the higher EU targets can be implemented from 2024. The deadline to transpose the changes in the ETS directive as stated in the draft is December 31, 2023. |
Increased competitiveness of renewable sources and – in short-term- gas units to the detriment of generation assets using high-emission fuels.
Increase in operating costs for conventional generation of electricity. Option to obtain direct investment support from 2021 from the Modernisation Fund and Innovation Fund. Another revision of the ETS Directive and MSR decision is likely to cause a further increase in prices of emission allowances. |
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Directive 2018/2001 on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources (Renewable Energy Directive). | To adapt legislation related to increased share of renewables in reference to EU’s new higher GHG reduction target by 2030. | On July 14, 2021, as part of Fit for 55, the European Commission presented a legislative proposal that includes a draft amendment to the renewables directive. It proposes a range of measures to achieve a higher binding target of 40% of energy from renewable sources in gross final energy consumption in 2030 at the EU level. ITRE is the leading committee in the European Parliament, and Markus Pieper (EPL, DE) is the rapporteur. | The legislative proposal has been sent for further work at the Council and European Parliament.
The legislative proposal is being proceeded in accordance with the ordinary legislative procedure by the European Parliament and Council. The proposed deadline for transposing the proposal into national law is December 31, 2024. |
Improvement in the competitiveness of low-emission sources of energy in comparison with high-emission sources.
Larger share of renewable sources in the Polish energy mix by 2030. |
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Directive 2012/27/EU on energy efficiency (EED Directive). | To adapt legislation related to energy efficiency improvements in reference to EU’s new higher GHG emission reduction target by 2030. | On July 14, 2021 as part of Fit for 55 the EC presented a legislative proposal concerning a draft amendment of the EED directive. It proposes a set of measures to achieve at EU level a binding target to reduce energy consumption by at least 9% in 2030 in comparison to 2020. ITRE is the leading committee in the European Parliament, and Niels Fuglsang (S&D, DK) is the rapporteur. | The legislative proposal is subject to further work at the Council and European Parliament.
The legislative proposal is being proceeded in accordance with the ordinary legislative procedure by the European Parliament and Council. The published draft does not include a deadline for transposing the directive into national law. |
Improvement in the competitiveness of low-emission sources of energy in comparison with high-emission sources, particularly in heating systems.
A faster phase-out of coal-based cogeneration from heating systems in connection with the introduction of a new emission criterion. Need for more extensive development of renewable sources in district heating systems. A higher factor for annual final energy savings will result in an increase in burdens on the energy efficiency certificate system. |
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Directive 2010/31/EU on the energy performance of buildings (EPBD) | Alignment of legislation related to improving the energy performance of buildings in the EU with respect to the 2050 climate neutrality target and the new higher 2030 EU GHG reduction target. | On December 15, 2021, the European Commission, as part of the next stage of the Fit for 55 legislative package, presented a legislative proposal for a draft amendment of the EPBD. The new directive aims to contribute to making all buildings zero-carbon by 2050. The EC proposed a range of mechanisms to improve the energy performance of new and already occupied buildings, including modernisations. Ciarán Cuffe was elected rapporteur for the Lead Committee of ITRE (Green Party, IR). | The legislative proposal was sent for further work at the Council and the European Parliament.
The legislative proposal is being proceeded according to the ordinary legislative procedure by the European Parliament and the Council. The date for transposition of the Directive into national law is not specified in the published draft. |
Greater competitiveness of renewable energy sources as a heat source in buildings.
Reduction in the heat demand of buildings due to improved energy performance. Faster rate of displacement of fossil fuels in the heating sectors, including district heating. Potential inhibition of growth of existing district heating systems due to proposed requirements for new and modernised buildings. |
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Directive 2003/96/EC restructuring the Community framework for the taxation of energy products and electricity (ETD Directive). | To adapt legislation related to tax on energy products and electricity to the EU’s new higher GHG emission target by 2030. | On July 14, 2021 as part of Fit for 55 the EC presented a legislative proposal that includes a draft revision of the ETD directive. ECON is the leading committee in the European Parliament, and Johan van Overtveld (EKR, BE) is the rapporteur. | The legislative proposal is subject to further work at the Council and European Parliament. The legislative proposal is being proceeded in accordance with the consultation procedure by the European Parliament and Council.
The proposal deadline for transposing the directive is January 1, 2023. |
Increase in the minimum tax rates for energy products. | |
Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR Regulation). | The aim of the new regulation, which repeals Directive AFID, is to ensure faster development of charging infrastructure and implement targets for charging station locations, including targets concerning distances between charging points throughout the trans-European TEN-T network. | On July 14, 2021 as part of Fit for 55 the EC presented a legislative proposal covering the AFIR Regulation. TRAN is the leading committee at the European Parliament, and Ismail Ertug (S&D, DE) is the rapporteur. | The legislative proposal is subject to further work at the Council and European Parliament. | The necessity to prepare the power grid to perform obligations resulting from the AFIR Regulation in the distribution area. | |
Regulation on guidelines for trans-European energy infrastructure (revision of the TEN-E Regulation ). |
Establishing guidelines for the development of trans-European energy infrastructure and new criteria for projects of common interests (“PCI”). | After the publication by the EC in December 2020 of a legislative proposal to revise the TEN-E regulation, on June 11, 2021, the Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council adopted a general approach, while on September 28, 2021 the ITRE committee at the EP approved amendments to the draft regulation and the mandate to begin tri-partite negotiations, ultimately adopted as the EP’s negotiation position.
Trilogues between the EP, EC and the Council took place on October 13, October 25, November 23 and December 14, 2021, when a preliminary agreement was reached . The text of the regulation agreed in the course of the trilogues included a new category of radial infrastructure for offshore wind farms and new, more liberalised criteria for smart grid projects. |
Approval of the agreement by the Council and EP in the first or second quarter of 2022, followed by publication of the regulation in the EU Official Journal. | The definition of rules for implementing PCI is a potential opportunity for certain PGE Group investments to apply for the status of PCI projects that may receive financial support from the Connecting Europe Facility. | |
The regulations concerning the financial perspective 2021-2027 and financing for sustainable economic growth | |||||
The Regulation 2020/852 on the establishment of a framework to facilitate sustainable investment, changing the regulation (EU) 2019/2088 (the Taxonomy Regulation) and delegated act to this regulation determining technical screening criteria. | Facilitation of funding for sustainable economic growth in EU.
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On April 21, 2021 the European Commission initially adopted delegated act establishing detailed technical screening criteria on the basis of which economic activities will be assessed to determine whether an activity is environmentally sustainable in relation to climate change prevention and adaptation. This act does not contain technical screening criteria for gas and nuclear power.
On June 4, 2021 the EC published the above-mentioned delegated act in the national languages. Neither the EP nor the Council objected to this delegated act within the deadline. On July 6, 2021 the EC published a delegated act under art. 8 of the taxonomy regulation, specifying rules for reporting participation in trade, CAPEX and OPEX of environmentally sustainable activities. Neither the EP nor the Council objected to this delegated act within the deadline. On December 9, 2021 a delegated act was published in the EU Official Journal, specifying detailed technical screening criteria, which will be the basis for assessment of economic activity in order to determine whether a given activity is conducted in a sustainable manner in environmental terms. The act entered into force on December 29, 2021 and is applied from January 1, 2022. A delegated act under art. 8 of the taxonomy regulation was published in the EU Official Journal on December 10, 2021. The act went into force on December 30, 2021 and is applied from January 1, 2022. On February 2, 2022 the EC unveiled a delegated act setting out detailed technical screening criteria for the use of nuclear power and gas. On March 9, 2022, the European Commission officially adopted this delegated act. |
Publication by the Platform on Sustainable Finance of a report on the taxonomy of harmful activities and activities having no significant environmental impact, report on social taxonomy and report on technical screening criteria for further environmental objectives – Q1 2022.
Expiry of the time-limit for raising objections to the delegated act on nuclear energy and gas – Q2/Q3 2022. |
Impact on availability and cost of funding obtained by PGE Group companies for investments. Direct impact on raising external capital for investments in condensation and high-efficiency gas-fired cogeneration, depending on the specified locations and meeting criteria established by an additional delegated act.
The obligation to include information on the share in the trade, CAPEX and OPEX of environmentally sustainable activities in the statement on non-financial information or consolidated statement on non-financial information. |
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European Commission Revised Climate, Energy and Environmental Aid Guidelines 2022 (CEEAG). | Definition of new rules for award of state aid, adapted to EU’s new reduction targets resulting from the Climate Law. |
On June 7, 2021 the EC published a draft of new CEEAG guidelines, which are to replace the existing guidelines. Public consultations ended on August 2, 2021.
On October 20, 2021 the European Parliament adopted a resolution that includes its position on the wording of the CEEAG guidelines proposed by the EC. On December 21, 2021, the CEEAG Guidelines were approved by the College of Commissioners. On January 27, 2022, the CEEAG Guidelines were formally adopted by the European Commission and went into effect. |
A change in conditions for obtaining state aid in PGE Group’s segments. Some of the provisions introduce stricter criteria for obtaining state aid, others clarify rules for obtaining it. | ||
Revision of Regulation 651/2014 of 17 June 2014 declaring certain types of aid compatible with the internal market pursuant to Art. 107 and 108 of the Treaty (GBER regulation). |
The regulation is intended to facilitate the implementation of state aid measures by Member States without prior notification in the area of:
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On October 6, 2021, the European Commission launched public consultations on the draft revision of GBER.
The draft amendment extends the set of measures exempted from prior notification and raises notification thresholds for climate, environmental and energy measures where objectively justified. It is also intended to provide additional flexibility by taking into account higher aid intensities, in particular where the aid is awarded on the basis of a competitive bidding process. Consultations were completed on December 8, 2021. |
A meeting with the State Aid Advisory Committee (composed of experts and the European Commission) will be held in the first half of 2022. It will take place after the European Commission has analysed the comments received during the public consultation. The regulation is expected to be adopted and published in mid-2022. | Change in the terms for notifying public aid in PGE Group’s segments. Some provisions tighten the criteria for obtaining public aid, others specify the rules for obtaining public aid. |
*(based on the MANAGEMENT BOARD REPORT on the activities of PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna S.A. and PGE Group for 2021)
Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on PGE Group's operations
PGE Group identifies, on an ongoing basis, the risk factors that affect the Group’s performance in connection with the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2021, the impact of the pandemic on financial performance remained limited. The nature and scale of possible further effects are difficult to estimate. The occurrence and reach of subsequent waves of the disease, the possibility of introducing restrictions and their impact on economic activity in Poland will be of importance. At the same time, the accuracy of estimates remains difficult in view of a number of other factors affecting the power market, including the level of demand for electricity.
The outbreak of the pandemic caused an economic slowdown in 2020 due to economies being frozen, with GDP declining by 2.5% in Poland and 6.4% in the Eurozone. GDP and industrial production rebounded sharply in 2021 as the subsequent waves of the pandemic did not reduce economic activity in a significant manner. In real terms, GDP grew 5.7% in Poland and 5.2% in the Europe.
Nevertheless, another implementation of restrictions may result in the reduced level of economic activity, which may create risk that the lower level of domestic electricity consumption will continue periodically, what may have impact on the decrease in revenues and margins from energy generation, distribution and sales in the Conventional Generation, Distribution, Supply, as well as in District Heating segment. PGE Group largely contracts the sale of electricity produced for the next years in advance, which allows to hedge itself in this respect against the potential effects of a recurrence of the epidemic or economic recession.
If the pandemic situation were to deteriorate, the Supply segment would face the risk of a decline in demand for electricity, which could result in lower sales to end users and a higher cost to balance electricity. Also in the Distribution segment, a lower volume of deliveries made to final off-takes would directly translate into lower revenues earned on this account.
As at December 31, 2021, the impact of the expected increase in payment congestion, especially regarding receivables from small and medium-sized enterprises, was not significant. The Group created additional write-offs on receivables in the amount of PLN 12 million. On the other hand, depending on the further epidemiological and economic situation, the risk of deteriorated liquidity of PGE Group and increased impairment losses on overdue receivables still exists and is monitored on an ongoing basis. Currently, the Group does not expect the occurrence to be more material and does not identify any liquidity risk.
PGE Group’s plants are of strategic importance for maintaining undisturbed production and supply of electricity and heat in Poland. The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the change of work organisation, especially with respect to PGE Group’s generation units. In many cases, this involves additional costs resulting from, for example, the purchase of protective materials for employees. Since the beginning of the pandemic, the Group has introduced work rules that aim to reduce, as much as possible, the health risk for employees. As one of the largest employers in Poland, with approx. 38 thousand employees, PGE Group takes a number of measures related to the organisation of work to ensure business continuity, protect the health and life of its employees, including the implementation of teleworking and rotational work, raising awareness of, in particular, the basic principles of protection against coronavirus, prevention and quarantine. Due to the introduction of appropriate countermeasures at the early stage of the pandemic, PGE Group has been continuously producing electricity and heat and ensuring their uninterrupted supply.
PGE Group additionally conducts communication activities aimed at employees, to build awareness of the positive effects of vaccinations – both individual and social. In addition, internal communication is carried out related to the course of the pandemic and encouraging to minimise the risk of infection – that is, keeping a distance, washing hands frequently or using office spaces in a safe way. PGE has established a Crisis Team to collect information from all Group companies, monitor the situation in individual companies on an ongoing basis and take appropriate steps. The production branches also have plans for operation with increased absenteeism that are developed and verified on an ongoing basis, and as plants of strategic importance from the point of view of maintaining undisturbed production and supply of electricity and heat, they are in constant contact with local authorities responsible for monitoring the situation in the country in all locations of PGE Group entities.
In the area of retail customer service, PGE Group focused primarily on expanding remote service channels.
Impact of war in Ukraine on PGE Group's activities
PGE is the largest energy company in Poland. PGE’s units meet approx. 43% of the country’s electricity demand and serve over 5.5 million customers, while PGE’s distribution area covers over 40% of Poland’s territory, including areas on the border with Ukraine and Belarus. The Group’s activities are therefore of exceptional importance for the country’s energy security. It is crucial for PGE Group to secure the continuity of operation of power plants and CHPs and distribution infrastructure so as to ensure uninterrupted supplies of electricity and heat to residents, institutions and businesses.
In connection with the situation in Ukraine, a Crisis Team has been established at the central level of PGE Group to continuously monitor threats and identify potential risks. The Crisis Team’s work includes monitoring the security of energy generation and supply and the protection of critical and IT infrastructure. Its tasks also include undertaking actions minimising the risk of a crisis situation, preparing the Group companies in the event of a crisis situation and planning, organising and coordinating works ensuring continuity of the Company’s and PGE Group’s operations.
Crisis teams have also been formed at the Group’s key companies, operating 24 hours a day, carrying out continuous monitoring and identifying potential risks in order to minimise risk to electricity and heat supplies.
All key PGE Group companies have adopted guidelines for developing business continuity plans. On this basis, companies develop and then implement their own business continuity plans that take into account the specifics of the company. A key assumption of business continuity plans is the development of a catalogue of risks for critical processes, on the basis of which emergency scenarios (instructions, procedures) are developed and adopted. The emergency scenarios are periodically tested and continuously updated. In the current situation, companies have been tasked with both urgently updating and reviewing internal regulations and business continuity plans.
Cybersecurity is also particularly important in the current geopolitical situation. PGE Group has implemented special procedures for monitoring ICT networks due to increased activity of criminal groups aiming to attack ICT (Information and Communication Technologies) and OT (Operational Technology) systems. With the CHARLIE-CRP state of alert in force, the emergency plans have been reviewed. A significant change in the company’s operating context triggered the launch of a threat analysis and risk estimation for cybersecurity incidents. There is also an increased focus on protecting the supply chain against cyberattacks.
The security of the Group’s facilities has been strengthened. In order to protect key energy infrastructure, the Group cooperates with all services responsible for security in Poland, with a particular focus on the Internal Security Agency (ABW). In addition, PGE Dystrybucja is continuously supported by the Territorial Defence Forces (TDF).
For further information is available in the Energy security section
We are wholeheartedly with the fighting Ukraine. Since the beginning of the war, we have been supporting our neighbours in this difficult time, we are organising aid for refugees arriving in Poland and we will certainly not leave Ukraine without help after the war ends. PGE has the experience and competence necessary to build and operate power grids. Once the war in Ukraine ends, PGE Dystrybucja employees would provide valuable support in the reconstruction of the distribution infrastructure. We declare our full cooperation in restoring reliable electricity supplies to Ukrainian households and the recovering Ukrainian economy.